Answers to your weather questions
National Weather Service offices in Great Falls, Glasgow, Billings and Missoula held a Facebook chat answering — and sometimes asking — winter weather questions.
This is an edited summary of some of the back-and-forth.
Q. Karl Puckett, Great Falls Tribune:What kind of winter is expected this year in terms of temp and snow? Can you predict that far in advance? And with what kind of certainty?
A. NWS Great Falls: It still looks like a moderate to strong El Nino is expected. The NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center issues regular seasonal outlooks regarding El Nino, etc.
For Montana, stronger El Ninos tend to have milder, drier conditions. That said, there are other factors that can still contribute to cold outbreaks, bigger snow events, etc. In other words, dry/mild conditions may be what the winter averages out to be, but it doesn't mean extremes won't occur.
A. NWS Missoula: Here is a case in point about how some areas could see more snow: Butte saw 61.8 inches of snow in the 1997-1998 El Nino season, which put it slightly above normal for snowfall. Many other western Montana stations saw below normal amounts though. Salmon, Idaho, saw 32.7 inches, which is slightly above its normal snowfall.
Q. NWS Glasgow: I'm a meteorologist, and a proud sports mom. We spend a lot of time on the road in Montana. My winter survival kit has our trusty blanket we use at football games, extra gloves, extra hat, a first-aid kit, a survival kit that can be purchased online, toilet paper, an umbrella (for sun, rain and snow), a flashlight that has the ability to be wound up in case the batteries die, and it includes a seat-belt cutter, a spike to break glass, water, granola bars and Uno cards (just so we don't get bored!) I just got this handheld thing called a "pickle," and it has matches, a mirror, tools, etc. that I also threw in my kit. Fits in your coat pocket! What else do you have in your kit?
A. Diane F. Smith: Also those dry heaters; they are a packet of material that you put a few drops of water on, and it creates heat. They last for quite a while. Always carry these supplies, year-round not just winter. Being a survivor of being stuck and stranded in 43 degrees below zero weather for seven hours many years ago, I am sure to take all the precautions I can. I spent 15 days in the hospital with frostbite, lost all my toe nails, and hide on face, hands, feet and legs. Not fun, but I am lucky to be alive.
A. Cari Wheat Roberts: Is it wrong to add bourbon? Strictly for emergencies, of course!
A. NWS Glasgow: Well, with open container laws, it's not something we recommend. But, if it's brand new and not opened, and then you get stuck for two days without help, I think you can get away with it. In all seriousness though, alcohol causes you to get to a hypothermic state sooner than it would if you didn't have it in your system. So, we don't recommend heavy drinking and then being out in the cold for any length of time.
A. Mike Overton: Something else to have is a spot GPS device.
Q. Kristen Inbody, Great Falls Tribune: Is there a temperature at which people should just not go out?
A. NWS Great Falls: I think the answer to that question depends on the individual and their level of preparation. How you dress and the amount of layers you wear can help tremendously. Wind/wind chill also plays a big role. Watch the forecast and prepare accordingly.
A. NWS Glasgow: It is a bit of personal preference, but around -20 degrees temperature or wind chill is where it takes about 30 minutes for frostbite to set it. At -40 degrees, it is less than 10 minutes.
Q. NWS Glasgow: If you are travelling long distance across a portion of Montana, say from Havre to Billings, and your car gets stuck in a snowbank, what would you do? What if you are not able to get cellphone coverage where you are stranded? Do you stay with your car?
A. Elaine West: Hmm, good question. I've heard the winter's can be really harsh in Havre area, but then it's just a snowbank. I'd have to say if I had my survival supplies stocked as suggested, I'd be safer putting on my emergency flashers and staying with my car.
A. NWS Glasgow: We recommend that you stay with your car (of course if you're near a place of safety — say a convenience store — then that's different). Run your car for about 10 minutes every hour and tie a loose piece of clothing onto your antenna or your window.
Also, check your exhaust pipe to make sure that is clear (or carbon monoxide will build up in your car). Of course use your hazard lights. Engine oil burned in a hubcap can create a smoke signal that can be seen for miles. To start the fire, prime with a little gasoline you get from your tank using a wire and a tissue or rag.
Q. NWS Missoula: Ever wonder when the coldest time of the winter typically occurs?
A. NWS Missoula: The coldest day of the year for western Montana tends to be around Christmas, Dec. 26-31 for northcentral and southwestern Montana and Jan. 1-10 for most of northeastern Montana.
A. NWS Great Falls: For Great Falls our driest month is February with a monthly average precipitation of 0.47 inches.
Q. Kristen Inbody, Great Falls Tribune: How often does winter weather close major roads in Montana (the interstates and U.S. Highway 2, for example)?
A. NWS Great Falls: We don't have those kinds of specific stats but we do know that the MDOT director, the Montana Highway Patrol, local law enforcement, the fire chief or incident commander if an imminent danger exists can make the decision to close roads. It is a difficult decision, ultimately, and one that is made in a collaborative effort.
A. NWS Glasgow: This goes along with the variability post we just had. Some years are better than others. During the Feb. 10, 2004, blizzard, nearly all of eastern Montana was shut down. They really don't like to close the road because the impacts on commerce are huge! And, sometimes there are no good places for semis or others to get shelter. In October 2005, a blizzard shut down the interstate from Billings to Bismarck. Glendive became a parking lot for semis.
A. NWS Great Falls: We are often contacted to provide weather info, such as how much longer snow will keep falling and at what intensity.
A. NWS Glasgow: We send emails from all our offices that include the district MDT supervisors, emergency managers, etc. They know the threat is possible in the next few days. But the final decision is up to the ones Great Falls mentioned.
A. Matthew Gray: Sometimes all it takes is a snow band with enough intensity. Last winter a band sat over I-90 in the Missoula area long enough that law enforcement told people to stop driving on the highway after multiple accidents. Sometimes it's not just the weather, it's the people around you too!
Q. Katie Hutchins, Spokane: Is the seasonal norm shifting? It seems like in most years, it is warm later into October and cool later into April.
A. NWS Billings: There are always seasonal variations. Our climatology norms go back 30 years, and those are updated every 10 years. They won't be updated again until 2020. We just don't have enough data since records and data have been kept in the large scale of time.
A. NWS Glasgow: Variability is a common theme in Montana's weather, from year to year, or just across a few hours distance.
Glasgow's least snowy year was 8 inches in 1930-31, yet our snowiest is 108.6 inches in 2010-11. Two years later Billings had their snowiest year on record, yet Glasgow was only about 10-15 inches above normal that year, and not even in the top 5 years for snow. For the past 30 years (1981-2010) the Glasgow average is 34.8 inches of snowfall.
Q. Melanie Proton, Glasgow: What were the snowiest and least snowiest winters ever recorded in Glasgow, Missoula, Great Falls and Billings?
A. NWS Missoula: The snowiest winter in Missoula occurred during the 1996-1997 winter where 111.2 inches of snow fell! The least snowy winter had 11.5 inches way back in 1907-1908.
A. NWS Glasgow: For Glasgow, the snowiest was 2010-11 with 108.6 inches. The least is 1930-31 with 8.2 inches.
A. NWS Great Falls: 120.2 inches in the winter of 1988-89 was the snowiest winter in Great Falls. Only 17.9 inches in the winter of 1904-05 was the least snowiest.
A. NWS Billings: Billings least snowiest winter of 1943-44 25.1 inches. Snowiest winter 103.5 inches the winter of 2013-2014.
Q. James Roets, Marion: As a newly retired meteorologist and new citizen of Montana, we're new to Montana winters. Generally, how does northwest Montana fare in the winter time? Cold? Snow? What should we know to prepare ourselves for winter travel?
Generally we encourage people to have a winter weather preparedness kit in their car and at home. Follow our Facebook and Twitter feeds for the latest, but also checkout Montana Department of Transportation's website for current road conditions before you travel. And when in doubt, feel free to give us a call and we'll try and help ya out with the forecast for your travel route!
That steep grade on Highway 2 as you head east from Marion can be a bit tricky in snow, particularly with the sharp right turn near the bottom. Best to take that part slow and steady. Blowing snow can sometimes be a problem in the open areas between Marion and Kila, but not too frequently.
Also, light freezing rain events are common for your area, particularly during December and January. These freezing rain events are not like ice storms back East, but they can be tricky and inconsistent from place to place. "Pineapple Express" events are classic for freezing rain.
Q. Kristen Inbody, Great Falls Tribune: Do you keep track of weather-related deaths? Do we have any?
A. NWS Billings: Yes, each office keeps what is called Storm Data records and all weather-related deaths are recorded, direct and indirect deaths.
Here's the national stats: 70 percent of deaths are from vehicle accidents. Most happen in males over 40. 50 percent of deaths due to cold weather are in people over 60. 20 percent of cold weather deaths occur in the home.
Regarding Montana's winter weather deaths, deaths in the ages of 20-40 are higher with males than females. Deaths over 80 are higher with females than males. Deaths are due to driving accidents, snowmobiles, hypothermia, alcohol-related hypothermia, avalanches, getting lost and trying to find shelter.
Q. Dann Babcox Sr., Livingston: What does the forecast mean for the wind?
A. NWS Billings: Typically with the El Nino will bring windy and mild conditions to Livingston. This will also depend on how strong of surface lows move across southern Canada and how strong of high pressure located across southern Idaho/western Wyoming and Colorado. There will also need to be very cold air situated in the Yellowstone , all the factors above will provide the Livingston gap effect.
Q. Dann Babcox Sr., Livingston: If we are looking at drier conditions, is there any ideas on the spring precipitation that may have an effect on a possible early fire season — like 2012?
A. NWS Great Falls: It is going to be difficult to determine what fire season could be like next year. Even if we have a drier winter, a wet spring or early summer could completely change things!
Q. Carolyn Young: What type of reports does the NWS need in the winter?
A. NWS Glasgow: Amounts may vary by office, but generally the following: 1. First accumulating snow of the season. 2. When snowfall hits 2 inches or more. 3. When snowfall hits 6 inches or more. 4. Freezing rain, especially accumulations. 5. Sleet. 6. Dense fog, under a 1/4 mile visibility, lasting for several hours. 7. Total snow depth at the end of an event. 8. Ice jams on rivers (freeze up jams, breakup jams).
We love getting those reports to our Facebook and Twitter feeds, and the pictures always help, too.
Q. Tammy Dunn, Glasgow:What about snow plow etiquette and safety, any helpful rules and tips?
A. NWS Great Falls: Good question. I think it's important to be patient and keep a safe distance back from snow plows. They are making the roads safer for everyone. Passing can be extremely hazardous.
The North Dakota Department of Transportation offers this advice for sharing the road with snowplows:
Never drive through “white-outs” or “snowfog” caused by cross winds or plowing snow. Wait until you can see.
Stay back at least five car lengths behind the plow, far from the snowfog; snowplow operators will pull over when it is safe to do so to allow traffic build-up to pass.
Stay alert as snowplows turn or exit frequently and often with little warning. They may also travel over centerlines or partially into traffic to further improve road conditions.
Slow down and drive according to the conditions. Most winter crashes are caused by driving too fast for conditions. Snowplows typically move at slower speeds.
Know where the snowplow is on multilane roadways. The snowplow could be in either lane or on the shoulder.
Be extremely cautious when passing a snowplow. They can be moved sideways by snow drifts and hard snow pack.
Watch for plow trucks on interstate ramps and “authorized vehicle only” cross-overs.
Turn on your head lights as this will increase your visibility to other motorists and snowplow operators. Remove snow from your vehicle that could cover your tail lights.
Be patient and remember that snowplows are working to improve road conditions for your trip.
Don’t assume you will have good traction because the road looks sanded. The sand can sink into the snow pack leaving a slick surface.
Never use cruise control on wet or icy roadways.
If you have more winter weather questions, post them here or reach Tribune Staff Writer Kristen Inbody at kinbody@greatfallstribune.com. Follow her on Twitter at @GFTrib_KInbody.