All eyes on John Walsh as plagiarism scandal lingers

HELENA – Democrat John Walsh's campaign remained silent Wednesday amid rumors the embattled incumbent senator is considering bowing out of the 2014 U.S. Senate race in the wake of a lingering plagiarism scandal.

Walsh reportedly canceled several scheduled campaign appearances in the state this week, just days after three of the state's major newspapers called on the candidate to end his campaign. On July 23, The New York Times revealed Walsh plagiarized major portions of a 2007 paper for his master's degree from the U.S. Army War College. The college is now investigating the matter.

Walsh's sudden departure from the campaign trail is now fueling speculation on political blogs and on social media sites that the Democrat may soon drop out of the race against Republican Congressman Steve Daines and Libertarian candidate Roger Roots.

An email to Walsh's campaign was not returned Wednesday.

Prior to the Times story, polls showed Daines with a comfortable lead over Walsh. A poll released Wednesday morning from the Republican polling firm Vox Populi showed Daines with a 56-33 percent lead over Walsh. A July 17 poll from the Democrat-leaning Public Policy Polling released just days before the plagiarism broke showed Walsh trailing Daines by a 46-39 percent margin.

On Tuesday, the political news site Politico.com cited anonymous sources who said, "Walsh is engaged in internal deliberations with his political team about whether to stay on the ballot."

"Senate Democratic leaders in Washington and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee are not playing an active role in the discussions, allowing the situation to be sorted out between Walsh and his Montana Democratic colleagues, according to people familiar with the matter," wrote Politico's Manu Raju and James Hohmann in an article posted Tuesday afternoon.

If Walsh does bow out of the race by the Monday deadline, the Montana Democratic Party has until Aug. 20 to name his replacement on the Nov. 4 ballot.

At this point it does not appear Democrats have a clear, viable candidate ready to step in and replace Walsh.

The two big names being floated in political spheres are former Gov. Brian Schweitzer, who last summer declined the Senate run, and former NARAL Pro-Choice America president and one-time Democratic state Superintendent of Public Instruction Nancy Keenan.

Multiple sources told the Tribune on Wednesday that Keenan was contacted by Democratic Party officials, but she declined to run.

Political analyst Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report said she heard the same information.

"Keenan has said no," Duffy said Wednesday morning. "She's got challenges. It would be hard to run as former NARAL president in a state like Montana. I think there's a lot out there for Republicans to attack."

Speculation that Schweitzer would be willing to enter the race excites many Democrats, but it's not clear he'd be willing to jump in. One Democratic operative predicted that if Schweitzer were to step up as the Democratic candidate, it could move the race from "likely Republican" to "toss up."

National political analysts aren't so sure Schweitzer could move the needle this late in the game.

"When we heard about this, the very first thing we said was, 'Schweitzer is going to get back in. He's their only hope,'" said political analyst Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. "That's really the truth. There is nobody else who can do it."

Sabato said while Schweitzer might be the Democrats' best hope, it may be too late for him to save the seat.

"It may be a lost seat. If Schweitzer had said 'yes' immediately, and this had gone forward with Schweitzer as the interim senator and nominee, you'd have a very competitive race," Sabato said.

Sabato's "Crystal Ball" newsletter recently moved the seat from "leans Republican" to "likely Republican" in the wake of the plagiarism scandal.

Schweitzer has his own baggage he'd bring to the race. In June, as he was blitzing national media outlets and testing the waters for a potential 2016 presidential bid, Schweitzer made one of the biggest gaffes of his political career when he told a reporter for the National Journal that former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., set off his "gaydar" and Southern men are "a little effeminate." In the same interview, Schweitzer compared Senate Intelligence Chairwoman Dianne Feinstein to a sex worker.

Those comments hobbled his presidential hopes and may have done in any chance at rescuing the Democrats' hopes of keeping Walsh's Senate seat, a seat Democrats have controlled for several decades.

One Democrat speaking on background said a major concern for the party is that if Walsh steps down and a serious candidate does not step up to replace him on the ballot, then the party would find itself in the middle of a "circus that makes the whole party look foolish."