Montana’s fiscal prudence slips in recent rankings

“There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

That’s a quote popularized by Mark Twain, a master of sarcasm.

But it’s a useful quotation to remember in the final weeks of the 2016 general election campaigns.

In some ways, it’s certainly possible to dig up statistics to make one’s political opponent look bad. And it’s not hard to find figures to boost a candidate.

These days, tensions are rising among candidates and their fervent supporters. Accusations and cheap shots, especially from independent groups that often enjoy attacking candidates, won’t be unusual, especially on television and in brochures and cards sent through the mail.

We’d like to suggest people do some of their own research, rather than taking anyone’s word for it.

Here’s an interesting issue to poke into: Is Montana’s economy doing well, and is state government responsible with our money?

Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, a Democrat, has touted the state as being the most fiscally responsible in the nation.

Then GOP challenger Greg Gianforte’s campaign issued a news release Friday stating that’s not the case. Gianforte’s camp noted the news media in 2014 cited a J.P. Morgan study, in which Montana was rated tops for bonded debt, commitments to pensions, retiree health costs and similar expenses. The Gianforte campaign said the report actually was based upon data from 2012, when Bullock wasn’t even governor.

The Gianforte camp then noted a more recent J.P. Morgan report from fiscal year 2015 showed Montana had dropped from first place to 26th place using the same criteria. Wyoming took first place in that ranking. That’s a good parry by the Republican side. We didn’t get a response from the Bullock campaign.

We decided to look at other ways to measure the health of Montana’s economy and the fiscal responsibility of state government.

One report by the Mercatus Center at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va., ranked the states’ fiscal conditions in a June 1 report, based in part upon long-term obligations such as employee pensions and health care benefits. This report ranked Montana 10th best among the states. Six contiguous states in the upper Midwest and Rocky Mountain West made the top 10.

“Revenues exceed expenses by 8 percent, producing a surplus of $409 per capita,” the report said about Montana.

A website called Multi-State Insider listed states with looming budget shortfalls. Montana wasn’t on that list, but Wyoming was, showing how quickly these rankings can change. Wyoming has been hit even harder than Montana has by a fall in oil prices and the market’s lagging interest in coal.

A Pew Charitable Trusts analysis dated Sept. 1 looked at the 50 states and ranked Montana 16th best for its long-term obligations.

We think Gov. Bullock should stop claiming the first-place ranking for Montana as the most fiscally responsible if he is using outdated figures.

As for the health of Montana’s economy, every Montanan can judge that for himself or herself.

Incidentally, it’s hard to blame Bullock for the drop in oil prices, which has international roots. But we think it’s a good idea for candidates to address how they will deal with Montana’s shrinking rainy-day fund, once projected to reach $314 million next June 30. The state’s fund balance June 30 this year was $255 million, and the Legislative Fiscal Division estimates the ending fund balance could drop to as low as $109 million next June.

Montana’s declining coffers will affect planning for Montana’s infrastructure improvements. Bullock last year wanted to issue low-interest bonds to cover the costs of some capital projects, and Republicans instead wanted to spend down the rainy-day fund to pay for infrastructure.

— Tribune editorial board